Blong 1981 Weichselgartner and Bertens 2002 Birkmann 2006 Galoppin 2006 Wilson et al. In particular, since the 1980s, risk models have begun to better integrate vulnerability of people, assets and complex systems (e.g. 2005 Schneiderbauer and Ehrlich 2006 Menoni et al. Whilst in the seventies most attention was devoted to the hazard component of risk, in the last decades new approaches have also included various aspects of vulnerability (e.g. Hazard is defined as a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation, and characterised by its location, intensity, frequency and probability (ISDR 2004), whereas exposed elements is an inventory of people and artefacts exposed to the hazard, as well as their economic value finally, vulnerability is the propensity to damage given intrinsic characteristics of people, assets and systems exposed. The term risk refers to the expected loss as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (e.g. In order to mitigate risk and to enhance preparedness, a comprehensive risk assessment is required, although communities will certainly vary in the resources available to them for such purposes. lahars, tsunamis, wind-induced remobilisation of pyroclastic deposits). tephra fallout, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, gas emissions) and secondary hazards (e.g. Associated impact and vulnerability studies also remain fragmented and unequally distributed amongst the different volcanic hazards, including primary (e.g. Given the low frequency of high-impact volcanic eruptions, experiences in emergency planning and risk mitigation for eruptions remains limited. Eyjafjallajökull 2010, Iceland Lund and Benediktsson 2011 Oxford Economics 2010). Large socio-economic impacts can also occur even when there are no casualties, such as when volcanic ash in the atmosphere affects the aviation industry (e.g. White Island 2019, New Zealand Fuego 2018, Guatemala Sinabung 2014, 2016, Indonesia Ontake 2014, Japan Merapi 2010, Indonesia). Regardless of the large international efforts to reduce risk, human fatalities are often still high (e.g. In particular, volcanic unrest and eruptions are potentially more diverse with respect to other natural hazards and pose significant threats to society on every continent. hazard, exposure, vulnerability, resilience) (e.g. For the sake of illustration of all the steps of the ADVISE model, we focus here on the risk assessment of the transport system in relation to the tephra fallout associated with a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle.ĭeveloping methodologies to assess risk associated with natural hazards is an on-going challenge globally due to the complexity of assessing and combining the various risk factors (e.g. The proposed approach has evolved over a decade of study on the volcanic island of Vulcano (Italy), where recent signs of unrest combined with uncontrolled urban development and significant seasonal variations of exposed population result in highly dynamic volcanic risk. The ADVISE model permits qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment depending on the final objective and on the available information. The output of risk assessment in the ADVISE model is expressed in terms of potential physical, functional, and systemic damage, determined by combining the available information on hazard, exposed systems and vulnerability. As an attempt to capture the multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of volcanic risk, we developed an integrAteD VolcanIc risk asSEssment (ADVISE) model that focuses on two temporal dimensions that authorities have to address in a volcanic context: short-term emergency management and long-term risk management. Risk assessments in volcanic contexts are complicated by the multi-hazard nature of both unrest and eruption phases, which frequently occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.
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